h1

Pakistan’s War on Terror and the New Cold War

March 13, 2010

by Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan | Groung Report

A new Cold war is in beginning. This time centre of this cold war is not Europe but South Central and Euro- Asia. Keeping in mind peak oil and conflicting interests of dominant powers, probability of return of cold war is a logical conclusion.

At Strategic level we see shift in policies of all concerned powers in Afghanistan and Central Asia. US Policy has at last tilted in Pakistan’s Favor and India is on retreat. Pakistan and US are coordinating with each other against extremism and results are coming both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In words of Seasoned Indian Diplomat M K Bhadrakumar

“India’s policy is at a crossroads. Assumptions behind the establishment thinking in Delhi in the recent years are fast withering amid the evolving situation in Afghanistan and India’s growing security concerns.”

“…But more worrisome for Delhi is the fact Karzai has begun seeking help from Pakistan. The fault lies entirely with the Indians in having failed to support him in recent months. Delhi backed losing candidate Abdullah Abdullah in last year’s presidential elections on the facile assumption that Washington wished to see him in power. That was a disastrous error of judgment.

Karzai is expected to unfold a road map on reconciliation within the next six weeks. He hopes to hold a loya jirgha (grand council) on April 29 with a view, as he put it, to “get guidance from the Afghan people on how to move forward towards reintegration and reconciliation [with the Taliban]”. And in his estimation, if there is greater participation by insurgent elements in parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in August, then further coalition-building becomes possible.

Delhi can anticipate that in all this, Karzai hopes for cooperation from Pakistan and as a quid pro quo he can be expected to factor in Pakistan’s interests. The day after Menon concluded his visit, Pakistani army chief Ashfaq Pervez Kiani met Karzai in Kabul to discuss “matters of mutual interest”. Karzai followed it up with a two-day visit to Islamabad that started on Wednesday.

Pakistan’s assertiveness is bothering Indian strategists but Delhi seems to have overlooked that many factors work in Islamabad’s favor. The Afghan elites in Kabul have close social and family kinships with Peshawar. The Afghan economy is dependent on imports from Pakistan. Pakistan has influence over Taliban groups and unlike in the past it has also cultivated the non-Pashtun groups of the erstwhile Northern Alliance. It also shouldn’t be forgotten that more than 80% of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supplies for the war in Afghanistan pass through Pakistan.

And most of all, Delhi underestimated that Pakistan is the US’s key non-NATO ally in the war and that implicit in this is Pakistan’s expectation to be recognized by Washington as a regional power. In fact, the US has been harping on a fundamental theme: Pakistan has a choice to make, namely, whether it wants to have a comprehensive partnership with the US and NATO; and if so, that it must cooperate with Washington’s strategies in the region. …”
Another Indian Analyst, Dr. Subhash Kapila   who is ex Indian Air Force and Intelligence official puts Indian failure in Afghanistan in following words

The Indian policy establishment should really now devote more time to a strategic audit and stock taking of its policy failure on Pakistan and Afghanistan.  There can be no two opinions that India’s policy formulations both on Pakistan stand effectively checkmated by Pakistan aided by those who value Pakistan’s strategic utility to their interests more than India in Afghanistan.

The Indian policy establishment cannot offer the plea that it stood surprised by developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan in the last year or so.  The indicators emerged with the unveiling of the AF-Pak strategy of the new President Obama in March 2009.

Similarly, India has strategically shrunk away from exploiting Pakistan’s vulnerabilities in Baluchistan, Pashtunistan, Balawaristan, Gilgit and even Sindh.  India needs to play these cards to force Pakistan Army and the ISI to recoil on Afghanistan, Kashmir and proxy war and terrorism against India.

The Statement of Dr. Subhash Kapila    gives exact mind set of Indian Policy makers. India’s game has failed but it wants that it should give maximum damage before quitting the game.

In other theater it appears Russian interests in Georgia are near collusion with those of American and NATO. There is clash of interests between Russia, China and US in Central Asia. As US is now aligning with Pakistan, Russia is best Choice for India.

China on the other hand is expected to join US or remain Neutral as US is the main Market of Chinese products and also because china own 48 % of US treasury bonds. If US guarantee that it will not allow Afghan soil to be used against China and will not support Tibet Card  and Taiwan there is no reason for not having a symbiotic relationship with US where both help each other.

The War which started against terrorism is fatly moving towards war of Interests. Encouraging thing for me as a Pakistani is that we have learned our lesson and Pakistani establishment and Leadership is taking stem with care and maturity.

Indian Policy failure has turned Indian Intelligence agencies into injured wolves. Their plan of setting same conditions in Pakistan which they settled back in 70’s in East Pakistan and in 80’s in Sri Lanka has failed badly. They have not only failed in Afghanistan but have also failed in their game with Iran.

 India, who is helping Iran in building Chahbahar Port to counter Pakistan’s Gawader Port, made its relation with Iran unfriendly when it openly voted against Iran to please USA. In past India used Iranian soil to destabilize Pakistan along with its consulates and information centers on Afghan Soil. But in end Pakistan helped Iran by helping it arrest Abdul Malik Riggi and Afghanistan by keeping its 90 % supplies going to Afghanistan via Pakistan Open.

As Chinese say “every conflict is an opportunity”. The war on terror which started as challenge to Pakistani society became an opportunity for change and rectify past mistakes. During past 9 years Pakistan wisely educated its masses that war on Terror being fought in FATA and NWFP was not war against Pashtuns or some specific school of thought but against extremists who were destroying very fabric of Pashtun and Pakistani Society. In end Pakistan not only succeeded the mind set of masses but also convince US and NATO that peace in Afghanistan can only come when Pashtuns will be given their rightful share in Afghanistan. Pakistan also tried and succeeded to some extent to cover the damage of Past by starting new relations with non Pashtun Population.

At present the hostile Afghanistan is coming near to Pakistan. Afghan president Hamid Karzai on his recent visit  in clear words said

“India is a friend but Pakistan is a Brother”

Meaning brothers cannot be sacrificed for friends. This change in Afghan establishment  is the reason that Peace is returning to Balochistan and on other front FATA and other troubled areas are coming back to normality.

 In the retaliation  Indian intelligence agencies are financing the groups to damage as much as they can to Pakistan. The murder of 5 Pakistanies which were blamed at Taliban a week ago in Afghanistan had clear signs of Indian Hand.

Similarly there is strong evidence that India is out sourcing terrorism in Pakistan with the help of third party(Rouge warlords and criminal elements on Pay roll of India). These people are giving Indian funded help to Takfiri groups Which have different ideology but same goals which Indian elite consider vital.

 Indian Political elite are following the philosophy Kutalya Chanakya who said “Enemy of enemy is Friend”. It’s necessary for return of BHARAT RASHTRA to either divide or weaken Pakistan because if Pakistan is Strong then the CHINA Pakistan friendship means INDIA enveloped by two reckonable Powers. But if Pakistan is week then there is only CHINA and India only has to care only one power.

Indian leadership has continued its policy of bleeding Pakistan and at same time has started coordinating its moves with its old allay Russia, Recent policy change by US is now forcing it to stop its campaign of terror against Pakistan from Afghan Soil.

Pakistan has entered in final Phase of War on terror. As an old Urdu proverb rightly says “lamp give intense light before it goes out”.  After victories in SWAT, Malakand, Bajor, SWA and Kurram agencies, The Alliance of Thugs, Fanatics and criminals, Popularly Known as Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan is reaching its conclusion. That is why after a calm of many weeks suddenly a resurgence of terrorist incidents has taken place in Pakistan.

This week can be called the bloodiest week in past two months. The week started with the attack on SIA building in model town in which a suicide bomber crashed his vehicle to the gate of Special Investigation unit’s building killing thirteen people most of them innocent civilians.

Then after the pause of one day an NGO office was attacked in Mansehra district in NWFP in which six innocent people were killed. the people who killed ,were there to help poor people and had nothing to with  politics.

Again after the pause of 1 day again Lahore was targeted and this time there were 9 bomb blasts. First two blasts were suicide blasts which happened in Walton Cantt Lahore in the Area of RA Bazaar. Two suicide bombers targeted Army vehicles killing 57 people including 8 soldiers. According to a very painful report those who were killed included   parents of a 6 month old baby girl who herself was injured in the blast (Those who have kids can imagine and feel the pain for the innocent 6 month old girl).The same day 7 low intensity blasts targeted for harassment of masses and to divert of security forces  occurred in Iqbal Town area resulting in few injuries. Two more low intensity blasts occurred in Shadman and Samna bad resulting in no loss of life. 

Today terrorists again striked Mingora in swat killing 11 people and injuring 52. According to reports a suicide bomber striked a security check post killing two soldiers and 9 innocent passer bys which included children and old men.

According to reports coming in media security forces are in search of at least one suspicious car, a four stroke rickshaw and a motor cycle.  Now it is becoming clear that yesterdays attacks in Samanabad, Shadman and Allama Iqbal Town were diversionary attacks to create harassment and  divert the concentration of Security forces but terrorists failed miserably and security forces professionally preempted their desires.

At Tactical and operational level we see the TTP is getting defeat at every battle ground they choose. They have been flushed out from Swat and Malakand. Their command and control  infrastructure in SWA is completely destroyed, their ideologically and physically strong areas like Bajor are now clear from their menace. Their safe heavens in Aurak zai, Kurram, NWA and Mohmand are under constant pressure, people of these areas are rising against them and they are now vulnerable due to superb military and Political strategy of Government. Their Leadership is either dead or not capable of giving orders. There are reports of Molvi Faqir Muhammad , Qari Zia and Hakeemullah are dead, if that’s not true then again its apparent that they have no capability to order or coordinate anything with their forces which are now either dead or hiding to save lives.

If what I have said is true then what are the reasons for the resurgence of terror? .I my Past essay dated Oct 20th 2009, “ Striking Taliban’s Centre of Gravity” I wrote

…TTP or movement of Taliban in Pakistan is an alliance of 20 to 30 militant groups helped by Al Qaeda. These all groups are Takfiries with their own networks and commands…

…Like Al Qaeda by just killing its main leadership or capturing its one or two stronghold we cannot destroy it. Fighting networks is a time taking and one has to cut each and every knot of net to get full success. In other words a network has multiple centers of gravity and each needs to be destroyed to get full success….

At this point TTP has lost its first line  leadership due to military action by Pakistani Forces or due to drone strikes by Americans.  The organization is in its last stage of existence as gorilla force, it has lost its support in masses and has now turned into only a terrorist outfit without central command. Although Pakistan has progressed remarkably in its war against terrorist but still there are sleeper cells and supporters of TTP or groups who makes TTP.

According to Interior minister Rehman Malik most of these terrorists or wanna be terrorists are joining Political parties to cover their activities. The government and security forces are on hunt of these criminals but it’s a time taking task in which government have to break the networks of these different  groups in different cities. Government cannot win unless masses help government and become responsible in pointing out the fanatics amongst them and keeping their eyes on new comers in their areas. This Public support requires that government acts or ban those political parties who show soft corner for these terrorists. It also requires a targeted Propaganda offensive by government against these extremists and education to masses.

At strategic ,operational and  tactical level we are seeing changes in fight against Terrorism. This Changing strategic environment in the region has already started a new cold War. World is fastly polarizing. Today India and Russia has signed a nuclear deal worth 1.5 billion Dollars .Russian President Putin has in clear words said that there will be no Arms deal with Pakistan due to Indian concerns.

The re Alignment of powers and change in chess game is predicting that if at all it’s a start of New Cold war then we will see  return of cold war Patterns which are already becoming visible.

India and Russia have already started their moves. Now we have to wait and see what moves US and Pakistan will make. History repeat itself and at this point of time this proverb is proving to be reality.

Advertisements

13 comments

  1. This report is still not providing a fully accurate picture in some regards …..US is a friend of Pakistan due to need… 9/11 bahana Afghanistan thikhana PAKISTAN NISHANA as Hamid Gul would say…Pakistan should better watch its back…


    • Before America leaves Afganistan… Pakistan needs to start a strong economic & military relationship with america

      After America leaves afganistan it will become busy in other affairs e.g Isreal

      So we need use our chance whilst we have americas ear


  2. If US gets upper hand in Afghanistan again….. Just wait and see how quickly Pakistan’s friendship will go south….. As quick as u can say “Pressler Amendment”

    and see how quickly new delhi becomes washingtons new best friend….as quick as u can say “landmark civilian nuclear deal”…..


  3. salman bhai
    America was and is never a friend of any body but it self . at present America need us. we are its compulsion. But this time a long term compulsion.
    India is an old ally of Russia. US and Russia are in competeing over central and euro asian oil reserves. India knows the importance of its allience with russia. it cannot afford to build relations with US which is a non reliable ally.
    we also know US is unreliable and we have learned it by hard way. we have allied our self with US which need us to milk it as much we can before we get re dumped in exchange of our help. US knows it and we know it.
    this relation ship is based on intrests not on any love lost


    • “If US guarantee that it will not allow Afghan soil to be used against China and will not support Tibet Card and Taiwan……………..”

      – clearly not happening, Taiwan will now get more weapons including the latest F-16s !

      “US knows it and we know it………..”

      – This is no alliance and no war is faught through such alliance

      There is lot more to happen in the years ahead, and it will not be cake-walk for Pakistan.


  4. Allah has again given us the opportunity which we missed in the late 1980’s. Lets use this with utmost care and respinsibility. Our job is to act like a big btother and make all Afghan parties sit down together and work out their differences for the development and security of all of Afghanistan. Not a single Afghan party should be left out. We Pakistanis must help our Afghan brothers in evey possible way: from training its police and armed forces to help its economy. We can especially help them in agriculture and by letting them use our ports for imports and export.

    In return Afghanistan must rethink its relations with India and take strong action on RAW’s terririst activities against Pakistan’s Balochistan.

    Personally I am not much of a fan of the whole stategic dept case. It is fundamentally wrong. Our major population centers are east or on the banks of river Indus. With this strategic dept theory our majority population will fall in the hands of the advancing Indians while our armed forces can have a window of oppurtunity to leave them (or should I say us) behind. This makes no sence to me. This makes even less sence considering the “defence by limited offence” strategy which Pakistans Armed Forces developed in the late 80’s and which is now part of our army’s training.


  5. salamualaikum 2 all my brothers n sisters…
    i wanted to ask one thing…i m soooooooo sorry cuz this is gonna b a bit irrelevant to the topic but i m juz pissed off…isn’t there anything that we can do to stop this disgusting n cursed site http://www.zaidhamidexposition.com ,n bring it down…for good??? it boils my blood evey tym i set an eye upon it…


  6. oops…its this…
    http://www.zaidhamidexposition.wordpress.com
    plzzz come up with some ideas quickly…i don’t want the blood of my whole body to b burnede in a week… 😛


  7. wait till 23rd march…ALLAH bahtari karaiga…INSHA ALLAH


  8. Pakistan should think of USA what it has been doing to us and joining their alliance when we have suffered so much because of it. Have we learnt from the history? Americans though were posing to be pakistan’s ally but they always acted contrary at the time of need such as when china went on war with india and encouraged us to take kashmir, who stopped us? USA. When Dacca was falling pakistan was waiting for US 7th fleet to help us which never came, instead it supported the creation of bangladesh. Be it Kargil or nuclear and now the afghan conflict the US has always deceived us. Recently we are again getting close to them just because of the dollars? We are told that we have a policy shift in afghanistan but it better be a shift to the people of afghanistan rather than the foreign agents and no munafkat please


    • Yes! Be it NRO-PPP, PML or army – Munafkat is the code with which Islamabad has conducted business from day one.

      Oeople who have no stake in the future of Pakistan having all their wealth, accounts, property and family outside the country should not be allowed to run for election. F.ex. how is it possible that Nawaz Sharif only declaired 8 million PRs in his personal wealth, paid 0 in taxes while saying rest belong to his wife? These people are harami and sons of bitches down to the very last bone.


  9. point is that us india and russia collective coordinate to destabilize pakistan . this point should raise in article.


  10. Well, the article has an interesting spin on the whole situation. Neither has Afghanistan become a friend of Pakistan nor is America winning the so called “War on terror” any time soon. The only casualty in the whole situation currently is Pakistan. At the end of the day America will leave Afghanistan, the majority pashtun will form government in Afghanistan whether in the form of Taliban or some other mixture of tribes. Whether Pakistan sells its soul to America or not God Almighty will save Pakistan inshAllah because the ties of Pashtun kinship and Muslim brotherhood would remain strong between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Al Qaeda would be defeated from Afghanistan and move away to other countries even Europe as a center of operation or wherever the so called sleeper cells are. There is a chance that Al Qaeda is totally defeated as well in the process. However, if Osama functions from CIA headquarters in Langley then thats another story. India would not have any leverage in Afghanistan when America leaves Afghanistan no matter how many consulates it builds there. Thats what i think would happen ten or so years down the road.



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: