h1

U.S. sandwiched in Afghanistan between India’s Cold Start Doctrine and Pakistani Defense with water fueling the fire.

March 8, 2010

By Talha Mujaddidi | Axis of Logic


The list of universal truths should be expanded to include the fact of Afghanistan’s invincibility. Afghanistan has maintained its reputation as the ‘graveyard of the empires’. The question is, before the US invasion of Afghanistan, did the US Military command really think they can invade, occupy and control Afghanistan? The US indulgence in Afghanistan had nothing to do with Al-Qaeda or Taliban. It had everything to do with strategic control of Afghanistan and Pakistan, oil and gas rich Central Asia, and oil drenched Iran. The US control of Central Asia is the core of Zibignew Brzezinski’s doctrine on US hegemony in 21st century. The title of his book, ‘The Grand Chess Board’ is enough to know how Brzezinski views the world.

Nine years after 9/11 one of the major problems for the US is their ongoing struggle to control Afghanistan. Enter Pakistan. Pakistan is in no mood for allowing India gain more control in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Army has changed its stance on key security issues since departure of US crony, General/Dictator, Pervez Musharraf.

The recent surge operation against Taliban in Southern Afghanistan by US and NATO troops is nothing other than, as General Hamid Gul puts it, “a front loaded withdrawal” Gen Gul is the former head of Pakistani ISI.

“The Americans are defeated. It isn’t necessarily because their firepower and their might have weakened, but it is because their own people are sick and tired [of engagement in Afghanistan]. There is fatigue now, fatigue is the threat and is the worst thing for a nation to suffer from. There is no way that the Americans can hold on to Afghanistan”.

India – Threat Number One

Pakistan army Chief Gen. Kayani 1 has made key changes to the national security policy of Pakistan. After the NATO summit, Gen. Kayani has made it clear to the US and its allies, that for the Pakistan army, India remains threat number one. This is after Indian Army Chief, Deepak Kapoor came out with a series of statements regarding Pakistan and even China. The first was his statement was that a nuclear war between India and Pakistan is possible. Then came another stunning and quietly laughable statement that, ‘India can simultaneously fight war with Pakistan and China’, (General Kapoor’s statements were made at a closed-door seminar at the Army Training Command, Shimla, India where he underlined the need to bolster India’s capability to wage a two-front war (against Pakistan and China).

Then came the Deepak Kapoor’s announcement of a “Cold Start Strategy” against Pakistan.

These positions taken by the Kapoor verified the worst suspicions of Pakistan military commanders – that India still views Pakistan as its foremost enemy and as it rides the US war machine for control of Afghanistan. Gen. Kayani has made it absolutely clear to the US that India considers Pakistan its number one enemy and therefore, the Pakistan military takes threats from Indian Army Chief very seriously. This is all in the backdrop of India occupying Kashmir since 1947, and more recently stopping Pakistan’s water supply which has led to water shortages in Pakistan, which is heavily dependent on its agriculture-based economy. Therefore, Pakistan will not tolerate India making further inroads into Afghanistan, thus ramping up the threat to our country. Recently, Gen. Kayani talked to Pakistani and foreign media for the first time in detail. Some excerpts from the conversation are worth pondering. (“Pindi Manifesto“, Outlook magazine, by Mariana Babar)

“Kayani proudly talked about the successful army operations in Swat, Malakand and South Waziristan. The myth had been broken, he said, that no army could take control of South Waziristan and hold it. Heliborne operations at 8,000 feet in South Waziristan were the largest ever in South Asia, he declared, and for which the US didn’t pay a cent”.

When the conversation turned to India, Gen Kayani’s addressed strategic issues. The following conclusions can easily be drawn from his words:

  • Pakistan won’t countenance a significant role for India in Afghanistan;
  • New Delhi’s recent military pronouncements worry Islamabad immensely;
  • The gains from backchannel diplomacy, launched during Pervez Musharraf’s 2 rule, need not necessarily be the starting point for Islamabad now; and Kashmir remains Pakistan’s principal focus.

Gen. Musharraf’s U-turn on Pakistan’s Kashmir policy was deeply resented by people of Pakistan. Gen. Kayani is now steering the Kashmir policy back to the pre-Musharraf track. The Pakistan Army has told the government that back channel diplomacy between India and Pakistan amounts to nothing more than pages of history when Gen. Musharraf gave elaborate concessions to Indians.

Kayani’s Response to India’s “Cold Start Doctrine”

Gen. Kayani intoned emphatically, “Yes, we are India-centric.” He then went on to spell out his reasons, taking quite seriously Indian army chief Deepak Kapoor’s cold start doctrine articulated in December 2009. General Kayani said,

“We have unresolved issues, a history of conflict and now the cold start doctrine. Help us resolve these issues so that we can shift our attention from the eastern borders to the west. Let us normalize these burning issues. We want peaceful coexistence with India. After all, India has the capability, and good intentions can change overnight.”

General Kayani also opposed the idea of India training the Afghan National Army.

“Strategically, we cannot have an Afghan army on my western border which has an Indian mindset. If we have an army trained by Pakistan, there will be better interactions on the western border.

“Our objective is that at the end of all this (Afghanistan), we should not be standing in the wrong corner of the room and should remain relevant in the region. This is our greatest challenge.”

Thinking beyond the US/NATO Occupation

Gen. Kayani’s recent stance has gained popular support from people of Pakistan; this also highlights the importance of the Pakistan Military high command’s observation of situation in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Military is now thinking of life in Afghanistan beyond the US/NATO occupation. Pakistan army does not want to have Indian Army floating around inside Afghanistan. Pakistan will also not want to damage its ties with Afghan Taliban.

Recently half a dozen high ranking Afghan Taliban members including Mullah Baradar were arrested by Pakistani intelligence in different Pakistani cities. This has confused some people and commentators are suggesting that Pakistan Army is no longer making a distinction between Pakistani Taliban and Afghan Taliban. Erik Randolph of Guardian Newspaper had this to say in his article, “Pakistan is winning its risky games”.

“There are a tonnes of theories as to what motivated Pakistan’s shadowy ISI to suddenly co-operate in handing over an old ally. Were they making sure he did not make a deal behind their back? Were they buying some influence with the United States? Or was it a stern warning to the Afghan Taliban to stay in line?”

Any of these theories could be correct. The bottom line is that Pakistan military command is making plans to counter Indian threats in the region and ensuring that when the U.S. puppet regime under Karzai fails in Kabul, the next government will remain Pakistan friendly. Setting limits on Afghan-Taliban operations inside Pakistan clarifies national boundaries, robs the Obama regime of their pretext for war on Pakistan and leaves Pakistan in a stronger negotiating position with Afghan Taliban when the U.S., Israel and India have finally withdrawn from the the country.

The Complications of Pakistan Politics

At the political level, Pakistan is a complicated but there is no question about its strength and future, contrary to frequent Western media reports that attempt to portray the country as a failing state.

In his recent article, Are Pakistan’s Strategic Nuclear Assets Threatened by Terrorists, Shahid Siddiqi wrote for Axis of Logic:

“Despite bad governance during 62 years of its life, the viability of this nation of 170 million has never been in doubt, even under the worst of circumstances. On the contrary it shows promise. It has a strong agricultural base and is self sufficient in food. It has an aggressive entrepreneurial class, a vibrant industry and efficient workforce. Its roller coaster economic performance notwithstanding, its growth rate until recently stood at an impressive 7.5%, behind China and India, when the world economy was in doldrums. Pakistanis are fiercely nationalistic and loyal to their country and have always rallied behind their nuclear-armed million strong defence forces in times of crisis, which are counted among the best in the world. If these factors do not make a nation viable, what does?There has never been nor is there today any danger of Pakistan’s collapse or of the country falling to the terrorists.”

Zardari is now under threat by the skeletons of corruption in his closet. Just as Uribe has become a liability to the U.S. in Colombia due to his dirty history, Zardari is will eventually lose his usefulness to the U.S. in Pakistan. His money laundering cases will now have to be re-opened after Pakistani Supreme Court has started to flex some muscles on key judicial procedures. This includes the National Accountability Bureau opening up Zardari’s corruption cases. This government which was setup so eloquently by US and UK is now heading for the gutter. Zardari will likely either have to resign and will probably be forced follow Musharraf into exile. This could mean more political chaos or mid-term elections, none of which is what people of Pakistan really want.

Zardari he is unable to control things the way he intended. On Febuary 22, the Pakistan Army Spokesmen declared that the Pakistan Army does not need government permission to grant extensions to its serving generals. Gen. Kayani has already extended the service of two senior generals to an additional year beyond their scheduled retirements. It is likely that Gen. Pasha, the head of ISI will get a one year extension. Gen. Kayani’s term of service, will be extended at least one year beyond his scheduled retirement in October.

The US is obviously unconcerned about the people of Pakistan or even the structure of politics in Pakistan. The US is realizing that political setup in Pakistan is too complex and difficult to manage and that Pakistan is no Yugoslavia. Hence, once again the entire US administration is dealing with Pakistan Army Headquarter (GHQ), just like they have for the most of history.

No End in Sight for the Indo-Pakistan Conflict

The relations between India and Pakistan are likely to worsen in the near future. The root cause of this is the Kashmir conflict but this fire is now being fueled by water. Water will be the root of conflict between India and Pakistan in near future. India has built dams on the Indus River flowing from Kashmir which is a violation of Indus River water treaty of 1962 between Pakistan and India. This is something that the US has also realized but it is unable to twist India’s arm into solving water and Kashmir issues with Pakistan. The recently concluded dialogue between India and Pakistan brought about absolutely no result whatsoever. India is simply not willing to even discuss the core thorny issues between itself and Pakistan. This posture is consistent with their confrontational policies toward all their neighbors – pages taken out of the CIA handbook – accepting nothing less than full regional dominance.

Any acute conflict between India and Pakistan will result in complete chaos for U.S./NATO troops in Afghanistan. In addition, a sudden ignition could be disastrous for both, Pakistan and India. These risks are rooted in the open hostility and hatred towards Pakistan by the Indian government which of course overflows into the attitudes of the populace. India’s penchant for conflict and dominance can be seen in its conflicts with every country in South Asia, from Pakistan to Sri Lanka to Nepal to the island of Maldives.

The US grand-strategic agenda lies sandwiched between Pakistan and India. India’s desire to gain control of Pakistan will also be compromised by the new Naxalite insurgency in India’s eastern states. This insurgency has exploded, requiring India to move at least 30,000 troops from Kashmir into the eastern states. Meanwhile, Pakistan will continue to provide covert support to various commanders inside Afghanistan in an effort to forstall Indian hegemony. The US must find a compromise in Afghanistan in search of an escape route. Mullah Omer does not want to talk to US or NATO at all. Some of his commanders (moderate Taliban) wanted to talk to the US but sadly for them and the U.S., they are now in Pakistan Army custody.

Advertisements

36 comments

  1. Yippeeeee!! RAW strikes again at Lahore!!


  2. Yippeeeee!! MOSSAD strikes again at Lahore!!


  3. Yippeeeee!! CIA strikes again at Lahore!!


    • @Sulatn

      India,when it wants to plan something against Indian Muslims,it perfrm terror act in Pakistan for divering attention.

      Right now You want to pass a bill against Muslim women and also want to introduce Bhagwat Geeta n schools against the wish of Indian Muslims

      As for sham Indian Democracy,garbage is being thrown on your own slave Muslim VP.


  4. It was expected because there american born TTP leader has been caught in karachi.


  5. India has a constructive and effective Cold Start Strategy vis a vis Pakistan and China threat to its security. India is serious in intention in its pronounciation of War on two fronts simultaneously with Pakistan and China should these both countries embark on adventurism. As a consequence both Pakistan and China have had to re assess on how to handle a Superpower India with its powerful Military doctrine covering all aspects of Indian Army, Airforce and Navy.


    • It’s funny how inferiority complex Indians leave comments on forums with Western names ….. as if to give their illegitimate selves a bit more weight. LOL.


    • You were also serious in intention after the Mumbai falseflag that came to nothing but hot air!.Just accept that all you can do is make cheap threats,in reality you want nothing of us!

      Yeah sure India is superpower of AIDS,poverty and prostitution but in war it will be crushed by Pak and China within a week!


    • Haha…”superpower India”…lol..


  6. CIA/RAW and MOSSAD in time break Pakistan into pieces for effective control. Pakistani people will have to come to terms with this inevitable outcome. China will not be able to effect dismantling of Pakistan.


    • On the contrary i truely believe that it’s India that will soon be dismantled into many smaller states!.They say that history repeats itself and it will,Israel won’t be able to save you from humiliation!.I suggest you accept the end of India instead of focusing on Pakistan.

      This “in time break of Pakistan” has been foretold a million times,it’s getting incredibly boring now so change the tune!.The thought of India fighting Pak and China at the one time is beyond a joke remembering how they were badly beaten in the 60’s!


    • Pakistan, one of the largest nations on earth, is here to stay 🙂

      Anyone trying to “break up” Pakistan will have to cope with the prospect of getting nuked back to the stone age. As for your RAW tettorists there wont be a India left after we are done with you as we have some really nasty toys for you!


    • @ MICHAEL (Hidden Indian rat)

      Thanks for your enlightening comment.


  7. @Sulatn

    If India has to do something against amuslims in India,first it performs some terror act in Pakistan,so that attention is diverted,and carries out its plans.

    Right now,you want to pass a bill which is anti-muslim women and also want to introduce Bhagwat Geeta in educational institutions against the will of Muslims.

    And for your sham democracy,garbage is thrown on your VP.


  8. The central reserve police in the indian occupied kashmir told me today that they are are afraid that the communists of kashmir shall annihilate india,israel,usa and england in case they continue attrocities on humanity in kashmir palestine,afghanistan and iraq


  9. India of today does not live in idealism, but in realism. Indians will recognize any government in Afghanistan, be it Taliban or anything. Pakistan can rest assured that even next Taliban government in Afghanistan will be India friendly. Pakistan will have more trouble with next Afghani government, even if its run by Taliban. If Pakistan continues with her anti-India activities, day is not too far when India will have to put everything at stake to break Pakistan into multiple pieces. Indians are getting ready even for nuclear war.


    • HAHAHA India today lives in d illusion indeed…
      Let’s see…


    • You missed the boat because Pak will bomb India back to the time of Adam if even remotely threatened!!.You’re “getting ready” for nuclear war where as we are fully prepared,this was obvious after the Mumbai falsefalg when even your military admitted it’s shortcomings!

      Next givernment in Afghanistan will be pro-Pak without doubt,we’ll make sure of that!.Whilst all this is happening the internal insurgencies within India will make sure it’s demise within the next decade.


  10. zardari how many more pakistani civillians are you going to let die before you do something about these american drones and another thing where is the voice of the opposition parties concerning this issue WHAT COWARDS we have in the goverment and army for god sake make a stand on this issue
    dont be indian obsessed all your lives there are other threats also that pakistan is facing other then indian
    nujat pakistani pakhtoon


    • PLease use the word SELL OUTS instead of Cowards…


  11. Pakistan is a great country, with a fighting spirit. It will take on India, US, Israel and UK and defeat the lot. It has the best army, navy and air force in the world. India will be defeated and sharia law will extend from the mediterannean to the Pacific. Pakistan zindabad.


  12. @Michael india’s cold ass strategy is doomed like many other strategies in the past. How effective indian army and their commando force is has been viewed by millions on TV on CNN & BBC that how they were putting scarves on their faces and claiming victories to their self sent terrorists. India should know that they cannot stay in Afghanistan and if they will make the mistake like russia and nato they will be doomed. If you think that indian thugs can divide pakistan then see india for yourself in the next 20 years squeezed to the size of nepal. Shame on india for killing unarmed kashmiris, denying their promises to UNO and stealing pakistan’s water. The indian cold ass strategy is doomed.


  13. My dear Pakistani/Indian brothers and sisters,

    Before you hurl another abuse or insult at each other, please imagine if there was no partition in 1947 or creation of Bangladesh in 1971, today a united India would have had roughly equal proportion of Hindus and Muslims, creating an equilibrium of power and stability… What’s more important that we could have been invested in improving our economy and social welfare creating a strong powerful nation at par with the likes of USA and China… Just think…

    To me it seems that every time we fight with each other, throw abuses and bombs at each other, the Western powers must be so happy to see their evil plan continue to succeed for over 60 years now… I wonder why most of us fail to see this simple reality, instead we keep listening to people who continue to spread racial and religious hatred, diverting our attention from the real issues facing both the countries, and whole of South Asia actually…


    • Is it another knife behind your “AMAN KI ICHHA”.Stop imposing Bhagwat Geeta on Muslims.


    • @ Reality Bites
      Two words for you

      FLYING SOLO!


  14. THIS IS WHAT I WROTE JUST NOW ON
    http://www.pakistannews.net/story/610125#reply
    THAT
    NATO VIOLATING INTERNATIONAL LAW IS CONDEMNABLE.MEANWHILE THE INDIAN FORCES IN THE OCCUPIED KASHMIR TOLD ME TODAY THAT INDIA HAS SUCCESSFULLY BEEN MISUSING MY NICKNAME AND EMAIL ADDRESS AND IDENTITY.THEREFORE READERS BEWARE OF THE DIRTY INDIAN TACTICS THUS OF DERIVING BENEFITS FROM USA


    • enough is enough time to shoot these drones down
      nujat pakistani pakhtoon


  15. “The list of universal truths should be expanded to include the fact of Afghanistan’s invincibility.”

    In order to do that, you have to distort the history and remove certain conquerors e.g. Alexander (came via khyber pass), Timur…


  16. “The list of universal truths should be expanded to include the fact of Afghanistan’s invincibility.”

    In order to do that, you have to distort the history and remove certain conquerors e.g. Alexander (came via khyber pass), Timur…


  17. http://www.pakistannews.net/story/610288#reply


  18. @reality bites – yes it does bite and the reality is that our M Ali Jinnah joined Gandhi and when he saw what he intended to do with muslims he left their movement because it was muslims who could have even driven the british out long ago. Can you remember Allama Iqbal? What was his vision and why he was thinking of pakistan? Because he knew the Hindu mentality alongwith other muslim league leaders and they were very true about the Hindu Zionists. Can you see it or you think Allama Iqbal was wrong who gave us the idea of pakistan??? Their vision was pakistan for all muslims but people like yourself were fooled by the hindus or were thinking that the hindus will give them power. Did any of your muslim leaders who supported one india got anything out of the hindus??? of course not!!! and all you muslims of india have got in india is reign of terror from hindus. What’s happening to muslims, christians, and lower casts in india, you can only be called blind if you cannot see that. HALF A MILLION MUSLIMS WERE MARTYRED FOR PAKISTAN AND WHO WAS BEHIND THAT YOUR NEHRU AND GANDHI. How could india with muslims and hindu would be strong when these hindus are killing raping your sisters and killing your brothers in kashmir??? No other country in the region is happy with india and if there is show me with your visionary eyes Mr. reality bites. (Altaf Hussain Kalia). Pakistan is the biggest victim of india because it has been fighting for kashmiris and these indian thugs divided our country through conspiracies and now sending terrorists to kill muslims of pakistan. Think think think reality bites and yes the reality bites and thank to Almighty Allah that he provided us pakistan for muslims.


    • @Civilian

      My friend, you and I can debate the 2-nation theory indefinitely and still not convince each other… Do you even understand that the same feelings of hurt and pain exist among people on both sides of the border?

      While I understand your feelings about Kashmir and other minorities in India, don’t you think that as an independent nation the first priority of Pakistan should be its own people and their well-being?

      I do realize the painful history of the last 60 years, so I can not see India, Pakistan and Bangladesh get together again (although it would be the greatest wonder in the modern world, if it did happen)…

      What we have to realize is that human race has been around for millions of years on the earth and survived all kinds of natural and self-made disasters… Nations and boundaries have been redefined and rewritten many times…

      So who knows how the Indian sub-continent may look in a few hundred or thousand years?


  19. Going through the comments of Pakitanis here al can say is that,” Vinashkale vipreet Budhi” (In bad times one looses his brain). Pakistanis think that they are the smartest guys but prove themselves to be fools each time. Just watch for another 10 years where Pakistan will be…


    • Funny you have to come to a Pakistani Forum, shows how much you are obsessed with Pakistan!

      Please go take a dump on your own railway tracks!
      We dont do that in Pakistan!

      Indeed Let’s see where India’ll be…


    • Will India and you will be there in ten years.


  20. no comments can be sent



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: