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The Pakistan Army Fighting Back

May 9, 2009

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Politically, by giving the Pakistani Taliban a chance for peace, General Kayani has won the sympathies of the people of the region and broad national support. The local population have also had a chance of looking at life under the Pakistani Taliban, a large part of whom are former thugs and thieves. This has bought the Pakistan Army a great deal of political mileage. Meanwhile, militarily the Pakistani Taliban are overstretched. They are also dangerously close to being strategically dissected, outflanked and caught with their pants down.

M. Hussain

The news stories from Pakistan have been bad across the board for quite some time now. Recent days have seen the TTP-led forces within 70 km of Islamabad, “peace” deals in Swat and a rising tide of attacks on major cities. However, all is not lost for the Pakistan Army. In fact, all was never lost; it has been a carefully planned strategic move on the part of General Kayani.

Politically, by giving the Pakistani Taliban a chance for peace, he has won the sympathies of the people of the region and broad national support. The local population have also had a chance of looking at life under the Pakistani Taliban, a large part of whom are former thugs and thieves. This has bought the Pakistan Army a great deal of political mileage. Meanwhile, militarily the Pakistani Taliban are overstretched. They are also dangerously close to being strategically dissected, outflanked and caught with their pants down.

Pakistan Army offensives have thus far been successful, and are likely to cut off Swat from TTP reinforcements from the South. Bajaur-Malakand-Buner axis would leave the Pakistani Taliban in Swat dissected from their friends in Mohmand Agency. The Swat Valley has very few exits and is accessible mainly from the South and North, with limited access to Shangla to the East and Dir to the West. All of which can theoretically be closed by the Pakistan Army.

The TTP have underestimated the Pakistan Army and overestimated their position and moved towards more conventional ground holding operations over classic guerrilla too quickly. They are likely to pay the price in blood, and complete loss of their northern flank. The only silver lining for the TTP will be the use of massive American weaponry including borrowed choppers that are likely to be used in such an operation. This would equate the Pakistan Army=stooges of America.

The Pakistani game plan has been masterminded by General Kayani, who is now emerging as a seasoned chess-player and a veritable Pakistani Putin. He has deftly fixed the political crisis without directly interfering in the affairs of the state. “The Kayani Model”, a term coined by former Chief of Army Staff Jehangir Karamat, represents a new framework for the Pakistan Army. As Karamat puts it, – “invisible but around, fully informed and acting through well timed and effective influence”.

In a parallel development, a new consensus appears to be emerging, that can be called the “Zaid Hamid Consensus” that charts out a broad policy of independence from the US and an Islamic state in the philosophical lineage of Allama Iqbal rather than a Taliban/Salafi style interpretation. This consensus, if it can gain critical mass, could prove to be an antidote to both foreign designs against the country as well as the internal threat of the Salafists and terrorists.

The Americans are also in the game. The American game plan is represented by a rehash of the “Sunni Awakening” strategy in Iraq under the brand name of “Sunni Tahreek” a so-called Deobandi outfit. This is perhaps the biggest danger for Pakistan, as it will in the long-term move the battle from far flung and remote areas to the city centers of the country in a rehash of Iraq post US conquest, with the violence, militias and terror that it accompanied. With the political government’s cooperation and US funding, this could easily turn very nasty.

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18 comments

  1. Finally the ‘deal’ is off, and we’re now ‘officially’ at war with those bastardly militants.

    Now please clarify this confusion: why was Zaid Hamid cheerleading the Swat ‘deal’ and warning the govt against opposing it?

    And besides the (friendly) real Talibans, how many (unfriendly) fake Talibans are known to Zaid Hamid & co.?


  2. [...] Dan Qayyum put an intriguing blog post on The Pakistan Army Fighting Back « Pakistan Ka Khuda HafizHere’s a quick excerptThis has bought the Pakistan Army a great deal of political mileage. Meanwhile, militarily the Pakistani Taliban are overstretched. They are also dangerously close to being strategically dissected, outflanked and caught with their pants … [...]


  3. I guess Mr Hamid was cheering for the very same reason General Kiyani supported it. To give peace a chance. Now that these people have shown their real faces its time to turn up the heat.


  4. It’s a real shame what the local people have to go through now. But NOW is the time, if we don’t eliminate those TTP demons now we’ll end up feeling much more sorry for that very same population eventually.

    May Allah swt bless our military and grant them success at completing this operation ASAP, ameen summa ameen.


    • Inshallah they will be successful!Ameen.


  5. I completely agree with Shoaib.
    @Baffled, Zaid Hamid explained on numerous occasions that the reason for supporting the peace deal was to avoid any further bloodshed and it was the wish of the people in Swat because as we see now, military action brings with it mass displacement of local populace and should be used as a last resort.The TTP of course did not honour the deal and the State is now taking action because now we all know what TTP’s real intentions are! Besides, fighting Afghan Taliban is not Pakistan’s job since they have never fought outside the borders of Pakistan. They are fighting a defensive war against the American invasion of their country and although I one may or may not agree with and support their particular interpretation of Islamic law, they are NOT the enemies of Pakistan. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is a part of the evil nexus which is hell-bent on destroying Pakistan and therefore is an enemy of the State and they deserve what’s being done to them by our armed forces. More power to our brave Jawaans!!

    Baffled, I hope you’re a bit less baffled now :)


  6. The reason Zaid Hamid favored peace deal was to push these liars who call themselves Talibaans and enforcers of Islamic Law to the maximum limit so their true face is visible to world.

    They were using cloak of “implementation of Islamic law” to show that they are fighting for Islam and to have sympathy in heart of religious people. But after the peace deal, they were left with NO ligitimate cause to continue their terrorist activities and thus, today we have seen their true faces.

    In turn, they are given cause to entire Pakistani nation to unite against them and Insha Allah, they will BE defeated and none of them will be spared, in this world or in the world hereinafter Allah will not forgive them for their sins and shedding innocent blood and causing Fitna on earth.


  7. A team of Ulema, headed by Maulana/Mufti SaleemULLAH Khan, accompanied by Maulana Rafi Usmani, Mufti Usman Yar Khan (s/o Mufti Asfandyar Wali) and some other top notch Ulema went to Sufi Mohammad to further negotiate a peace deal through Sufi Mohammad with the deviant leader of TTP. However, Sufi Mohammad, being a pro-state person, was unfortunately unable to force the self-styled TTP, headed by Baitullah Mehsud, (originally backed by CIA & RAW, who’re backed by MOSSAD) denied any negotiations and to surrender their arms & ammunition. Thus, the team of religious scholars returned without much success. TTP can only lay down its arms when USA backs out of Afghanistan, stops funding it through Indian Channels in Afghanistan, which is an event that doesn’t seem to be round the corner, hence, the best option, carefully decided upon by the Core Commanders in a meeting with the COAS, was to eliminate these miscreants.

    Though i still have a question: Baitullah Mehsud being released from Guantanamo Bay after 5 years of imprisonment? If Baitullah Mehsud is NOT CIA’s man, and is a terrorist who’s head now holds a value of US$50 million, why was he released alive? And who assisted him in getting back inside Pakistan from Afghanistan? Anyone care to answer?


  8. @AAKhan

    Everything which is not a source from pak is BS for…

    btw your ‘knowledgeable folks’ must be from Talubunnies,Al-Qaida,Army,ISI,Govt and thousands of other Terrorists Groups.

    The ‘knowledgeable folks’ are found in pak only…
    Once again pak is right and WORLD is wrong :)


    • The ‘world’ here is just a website, quoting its own sources. If you look at it from your own perspective then you must have believed the ‘world’ when some time ago they leaked some nonsense about the exact whereabouts from Bin Laden, somewhere in Parachinar in Pakistan.


  9. Amit: “Everything which is not a source from pak is BS for… btw your ‘knowledgeable folks’ must be from Talubunnies,Al-Qaida,Army,ISI,Govt and thousands of other Terrorists Groups”…”The ‘knowledgeable folks’ are found in pak only… Once again pak is right and WORLD is wrong ”

    Taliban, Al-Qaida may or may not be knowledgeable, but THE PAK Army and THE ISI always ARE!

    The World may or may not be wrong, an idolater VHP Zionist antagonist always IS! Hence, his ilk must prepare for total annihilation soon to be witnessed in his infested nest. This time, neither he can run, nor hide.


  10. @Anti-Zionist

    You are so scared of VHP and you must be getting nightmares at the name of VHP :)

    Your cross-border terrorism and support to terrorism of all kinds has led to paks division in 1971 and now pak on the path of civil war and finally another partition.
    Pak is burning in the fire it created to annihilate others.

    Learn from your mistakes before its too late.Remember that US will walk away easily but it will be you burning for decades.

    Amen :)


  11. AOA ALL OF U GUYS

    I JUST WANT TO REMIND YOU GUYS

    “The Grand Mosque Seizure” on November 20, 1979 was an armed attack and takeover by armed Islamic fundamentalist dissidents of the Al-Masjid al-Haram in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, the holiest place in Islam. The insurgents declared that the Mahdi, or redeemer of Islam, had arrived in the form of one of the insurgents’ leaders, Abdullah Hamid Mohammed Al-Qahtani and called on Muslims to obey him.
    The seizure shook the Islamic world as hundreds of pilgrims present for the annual hajj were taken hostage, and hundreds of militants, security forces and hostages caught in crossfire were killed in the ensuing battles for control of the site. The siege ended two weeks after the takeover began with militants cleared from the mosque.

    This was the Operation of pakistan defence forces along with french and saudiens.

    With the help of ALLAH ALMIGHTY our forces sweep them & now INSHALLAH they will do it again.


    • Wa’aleikum as salaam,

      For your information, Pak army’s alleged participation in that operation is NOT undisputed.


  12. taliban and mujahideen will inshalah never be defeated.
    mujahideen and taliban fight purely for allah and islam while paki army fights for america and zionist interests.so allahs curse is on paki army and his blessings on taliban

    allah says in quran that i made humans and jins for no other
    purpose but they worship me.so our american worshipping pakistan army govt and people will soon be thrown into dustbin of history and all glory success and happiness of both world will belong to taliban
    inshalah all world will see this.though due to munafiqat now no pakistani is realising that



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