PKKH Exclusive: Why the Chief Matters

As The Rumor Says….

Round-Up of the Current Political Situation

Nemrah Ahmed | Political Analyst, PKKH

Although the author always warns before penning down premature rumors that their authenticity can be challenged by any future action of the parties concerned, the funniest things about the rumors is that they always turn out to be true in Pakistan!

As the legend says, “Never trust a politician’s statement until he denies it”, in our part of the world, a hue and cry of “This cannot happen” and “We will not allow this” begins before any big change. Some things are predicted by legends, while others by the rumors, and the rumors being floated these days, good or bad, seem to be very interesting.

Coup in Pakistan ‘fat tail’ event of 2009

“The Pakistan Army did not want to intervene in politics, but there could be a coup if the civilian government did not improve its performance”, Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former Saudi intelligence chief, said on Monday.

Additionally, in a special report on the world’s top 10 “fat tails” – relatively low-likelihood but potentially high-impact events – Eurasia Group identified the chance of a military takeover in Pakistan as the most potentially-significant unexpected development that might transform global geopolitics.

Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, Nigeria and Mexico are the places where unexpected political change could have the most impact on world markets in 2009, the Eurasia Group risk consultancy said on Monday.

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The Kayani Model

Jehangir Karamat

This time the military followed what must be called the ‘Kayani Model’—invisible but around, fully informed and acting through well timed and effective influence in the right quarter. The preference was for the institution rather than any individual and there was no personal angle or ambition.

Five Reasons Why India Can’t ‘Do A Gaza ‘ On Pakistan

Over the last week, many Americans (and not a few Indians) have asked me why India does not “do a Gaza” on Pakistan, referring, of course, to an emulation of Israel’s punitive use of force against Hamas-run Palestine, a territory from which rockets rain down on Israeli soil with reliable frequency (if not reliable destructiveness … but that is not for want of Hamas intent).

My answer, given with the heavy heart that comes always with a painful grip on reality, is simple: India does not because it cannot.

Here are five reasons why:

Countdown to a Crisis on the Subcontinent

India has given Pakistan time till Dec 26: Stratfor report

The week began with a series of signals from New Delhi that India’s restraint in taking military action against Pakistan is no longer guaranteed. In fact, such action could very well be imminent.

In a press conference Monday, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that while India “has so far acted with utmost restraint,” it will “explore all options” in pressuring Pakistan to deal with Islamist militancy. The same day, Indian media reported that Indian troops and the air force’s Quick Reaction Teams had deployed along the border with Pakistan, with commandos reinforced at airstrips in Jaisalmer and Uttarlai in Rajasthan and Bhuj in Gujarat. The Pakistani military, meanwhile, reportedly went on a heightened state of alert, with reports of air force jets scrambling in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore and Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir.