Dan Qayyum | PakistanKaKhudaHafiz.com
All warfare is based on deception
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
ISLAMABAD – Despite India’s humiliating defeat on the diplomatic front, the threat of a military confrontation is not yet over.
The Indian media and officials including External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee have taken an extraordinary u-turn in the last few days and seem to be going out of their way to ensure peace in the region and the de-escalation of of tension – which if they are to be believed, are a product of Pakistan’s war mongering. India has now denied ever amassing its troops in the Rajasthan area, nevermind building hangars and runways. The recent statements by the high and mighty in India are not without reason, however. Lets first have a look at what has been said before we attempt to look into the reasons behind this sudden change of heart by our Indian ‘friends’.
On ‘evidence’ of Pakistan’s alleged hand in Mumbai:
Responding to repeated Pakistani calls for “evidence”, Mukherjee categorically said that India had provided enough evidence already. “It’s time for action,” the minister added. | Times of India | December 21, 2008
After both the Interpol and China demanded India present credible evidence before accusing Pakistan, and Pakistan laughing off the ‘evidence’ presented on India’s behalf by the US and UK, Pranab Mukherjee has changed his tone completely:
India is now in the final stages of completing its investigation into the Mumbai terror attacks. That would be shared with Pakistan and others, Mukherjee said. Pakistan, he emphasised, will have to act on evidence India gives to it. “And there has to be credible evidence that they are acting on it.” | Hindustan Times | December 30th, 2008
On the war hysteria:
As reported by Indian media last week -
New Delhi also stressed that although it has acted with “utmost restraint” so far, it had not “closed any options”, including a military strike, if Islamabad did not fulfill its anti-terror pledge. | The Hindu | December 23rd, 2008
Even as India refused to take the military option off the table while asking Pakistan to rein in the terrorists, the Indian Army’s and IAF’s quick reaction teams (QRTs) were deployed along the borders in the Western Sector. “Runways, hangars, main roads, ammunition stores and other sensitive places have been provided with additional cover. Sophisticated radars are installed at a few air bases and we are keeping watch on each and every cross-border activity,” said an IAF personnel. Indian forces were on regular firing exercises at locations like Lathi Firing Range in Jaisalmer, Mahsan in Bikaner, Suratgarh and Ganganagar. | Times of India | December 22nd, 2008
Reliable sources have told us that in the wake of the Mumbai attacks, New Delhi relayed a message to the Pakistanis via the United States, saying they would be given 30 days to crack down on Islamist militant proxies on Pakistani soil that continue to threaten India. While India used the time to prep its military forces, the United States came down hard on Pakistan behind the scenes, making clear that if Islamabad did not deliver, Washington would not be able to stand in New Delhi’s way if and when the time came for India to act. | Stratfor Report | December 23rd, 2008
India has informed Pakistan that it has not engaged in any sort of troop build-up | India Today | December 27th, 2008
Denying any ultimatum being set for Pakistan to act, Pranab Mukherjee said, “no ultimatum was set. There is no question of any ultimatum. Nobody has set any ultimatum.” | Press Trust of India | December 28th, 2008
India has told Pakistan that reports it is mobilising troops along its western border are without basis | The Hindu | December 28, 2008
The reason behind this complete u-turn is to counter the growing view internationally that India has not only failed to provide any credible evidence of Pakistan’s alleged involvement in Mumbai attacks, but is threatening a war on Pakistan by mobilising its troops along the shared border. The Indian media machine as well as its politicians continue to work overtime trying to convince the rest of the world that it was Pakistan, and not India, creating the climate of confrontation between the two nuclear states.
Worryingly for Pakistan, it seems to be working:
Tough tensions have risen in the past few days, neither India’s governing coalition led by the Congress Party nor its habitually hawkish political opposition is advocating a military confrontation with Pakistan, the country’s neighbor and archrival. Pakistan’s redeployment of troops late last week to its border with India, from its tribal areas in the northwest, raised fears. | New York Times | December 28th, 2008
Failing to get a guarantee that Pakistan will not respond to India’s planned ‘surgical strikes’, the US and India now plan to play the waiting game, while reassuring Pakistan that India does not intend to attack, and in fact never did.
The US has even provided Pakistan with satellite imagery showing no movement of Indian troops along the border and implying that Pakistan’s concerns of Indian troop build up are unsubstantiated.
India’s apparent backtracking is intended to create pressure on the Pakistan Army which has been on a high alert in response to the emerging threat from India. Islamabad is said to be under increasing pressure from Washington to not just de-escalate tensions but also reduce the armed forces build up along the border.
If the Pakistan government and military leadership buy into this BS and lay down their guard, the consequences could be devastating for Pakistan.
The reason India has not attacked targets in Pakistan so far despite the green signal from Washington, is its uncertainty of Pakistan Army’s response and the fear of losing face in case its much celebrated Su30k’s are shot down. India is also aware that the Pakistan Army may not be content with shooting down a couple of jets and is more likely to respond by launching an all out war.
A de-escalation would see Pakistan army ordered back to the barracks giving India the opportunity to strike without the fear of a swift or decisive response by Pakistan.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has held meetings with the heads of the Indian armed forces in the past 24 hours, while build up of the Indian Army continues. The Indian Government has also cancelled scheduled foreign tours of the services chiefs and requested them to be ready for any siutation. Top politicians including Sonia Gandhi, Lalu Parsad Yadav, Motilal Vohra, AK Anthony and Pranab Mukherjee have also attended the briefings.
The proposals under consideration by the Indian Army are:
- Surgical Strikes
Squadrons of Mirage, Jaguar or Sukhoi fighters to carry out strikes on Targets such as the alleged Lashkar-e-Tayba headquarters in Azad Kashmir as well as the Jama’at-ud-Dawa headquarters at Muridke.
- Commando Raids
Special Forces units cross LoC, attack a an alleged Lashkar site and return. Possibly helicopter borne.
- Artillery Barrage
Long-range artillery fires at militant forward bases across the LoC. Bofors and Russian 130 mm guns have 30 km range – Given theguns would be fired from about 5 kms inside India, to be precise the targets would be anything between 8 to 10 kms inside Azad Kashmir.
- Mobilization Threat
India mobilizes its land, sea and air forces across the western front. One or two armoured corps make short incursion into Pak territory. India would use Cold Start doctrine and launch a small conventional attack below the nuke threshold. 10th or 11th Corps in Punjab could be mobilised for this.
- Naval blockade of Karachi
This is high on the list of the most effective measures India can take, but also the least likely one as US supplies to Afghanistan pass through this corridor. The recent arrival of three Chinese Navy ships in the area on an anti-piracy mission – armed with special forces, helicopters and missiles – can also serve as a deterrence.
Despite the attempts to lure Pakistan into a false sense of security, Pakistan Army continues to be in a heightened state of ‘Red-Alert’, deploying forces as well as equipment in border areas. The army had been installing anti-aircraft guns at roofs of various buildings of strategic importance on Monday while choppers patrolled the skies, prompting hundreds of onlookers to chant ‘Allah-o-Akbar’ and ‘Pak Fauj ko Salam’. The deployment of missiles in strategic locations is complete while NATO’s supplies to Afghanistan have been halted until further notice on the pretext of clearing the area of militants.
In the foreground, Pakistan has officially called on India to deactivate its forward airbases, return troops to “peacetime” positions and resume a dialogue suspended after last month’s militant attacks in Mumbai.
If the recent Israeli action in Gaza is anything to go by, India will use the window between the start of the new year and Barack Obama swearing in on January 20th to attack targets inside Pakistani territory, provided Pakistan takes its eye off the ball.
India Defeated in the First Round.
United Pakistan: India’s Worst Nightmare.
Update 11:44pm PST:
India wants to launch air strikes inside Pakistan: McCain
WASHINGTON: U.S. Senator John McCain has voiced his deep concern over tense South Asian situation, saying India was preparing for some kind of attack on Pakistan in the wake of last month’s Mumbai attacks.
“The Indians are on the verge of some kind of attack on Pakistan,” such as an air attack on suspected militant camps, he told a daily newspaper in his home state Arizona published Monday. [source]