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Kayani Spells Out Threat Posed By India

February 4, 2010

Cyril Almeida

RAWALPINDI: While the Pakistan Army is alert to and fighting the threat posed by militancy, it remains an “India-centric” institution and that reality will not change in any significant way until the Kashmir issue and water disputes are resolved, according to army chief Gen Kayani.

In a presentation to Pakistani media, Gen Kayani reiterated his widely reported comments on the Pakistan Army’s view of the situation in Afghanistan and the way forward there.

But the army chief also made it clear that his institution’s “frame of reference” for addressing the problems in that country included certain concerns that are India specific.

History, unresolved issues, India’s military capability and its ‘Cold Start’ doctrine meant that Pakistan could not afford to let its guard down. Repeating a well-known formulation, Gen Kayani said: “We plan on adversaries’ capabilities, not intentions.”

The tough, matter-of-fact line on India was in stark contrast to that of Gen Kayani’s predecessor, Gen (retd) Musharraf, who tried hard to push for peace with India in his latter years in power.

Gen Kayani, though, does not carry the dual burden of being president and the army chief, which perhaps explains the narrower, militaristic formulation of Pakistan’s posture towards India.

The general was particularly keen to highlight the threat posed by India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine. Turing the traditional theory of war on its head, ‘Cold Start’ would permit the Indian Army to attack before mobilising, increasing the possibility of a “sudden spiral escalation”, according to Gen Kayani.

The Pakistan Army’s concerns about ‘Cold Start’ are well known, but Gen Kayani went as far as to put a timeline on its implementation: two years for India to achieve partial implementation and five years for full.

If true, the strategic impact could be of the highest order: defence analysts have speculated that ‘Cold Start’ may lead the Pakistan Army to lower its nuclear threshold as a way of deterring any punitive strikes or rapid capture of territory by the Indian armed forces.

Yet, Gen Kayani was also keen to point out that he did not have a one-dimensional view of security. Despite the fact that India’s defence budget is “seven times” that of Pakistan’s “there has to be a balance between development and military spending,” the general said.

He also pleaded that “peace and stability in South Asia should not be made hostage to a single terrorist act of a non-state actor”, a reference to the November 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Refusing to talk to Pakistan would send a bad signal on two counts: one, the non-state actors would know that they have the power to nudge India and Pakistan towards war; and two, within India it would become clear that relations with Pakistan could be suspended indefinitely.

The comments on India, though, came only later in an extended Power Point Presentation that covered everything from the operations in Swat and South Waziristan to the “way forward” in Afghanistan. Gen Kayani seemed relatively pleased with the reaction his presentation received when first unveiled at a meeting of chiefs of defence staff of Nato and its allied countries in Brussels late last month.

Emphasising what he termed the “fundamentals”, he claimed that until the Afghan government improved its credibility and governance record and until the Afghan population began to change its perception that Isaf is not winning, the Afghan government would not be able to establish its writ and the local Taliban would not be “weaned off”.

But on Afghanistan, too, India featured in Gen Kayani’s comments. Rejecting India’s reported interest in training the Afghan National Army and the country’s police force, Gen Kayani argued that Pakistan had a more legitimate expectation to do so.

Taken together, Gen Kayani’s comments suggest that the possibility of a thaw in relations between India and Pakistan any time soon is low.

Both India and Pakistan appear to have firmly lapsed into the old pattern of highlighting the differences between them and the threats they face from each other, while nominally leaving the door open to an improvement in relations if one side addresses the other’s concerns.

Unlike the past, though, the stakes appear to be higher because of the uncertain future of Afghanistan and a ‘nuclear overhang’ that may be affected by ‘Cold Start’.

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47 comments

  1. mr keyani please do not take us your fellow pakistanis as fools anymore when we well know that the immediate dangers are the american drones that are killing and have killed hundreds of pakistani civillians while you make your grand speeches to avoid
    acting on it please do us a favour and get lost and take zardari and his henchmen with you your all a discrace to the nation of pakistan
    these americans are killing pakistani civillians like a game of console from thousands of miles away from a comfort of an armchair
    nujat pakistani patrioc


    • hahahaha
      i may laugh at your comments
      we all know what kyani is capable of.
      he has changed army image in no time.
      and we love man like kyani who is at the front line all the time….
      speak wise else be quite and shut-up
      we dont need your comments…
      Pakistan Zinda Bad
      ALLAH pakistan ka hafiz


      • gen kayani zindabad
        pakistan paindabad


  2. zardari hahahahahaahahahaha :P ur crazy man .. L@!Q ur absolutely right .. !! kiyani is dh man who can only stand in dh front n he’s dh only one who can save pakistan :D .. MAY ALLAH BLESS PAKISTAN .. !! nd give PAKISTAN DH LEADER’S LIKE KIYANI !!!


  3. capable of eh he keyani should practice what he preaches as for changing army image he has made the pak army the laughing stock of the world where they cannot stop an outsider power like america from killing its own people through the drones so i suggest you shup up and keep living in denial as for keyani being at the front line im sure hes getting a good view of the drones flying obove him
    nujat pakistani patrioc


    • lol!

      “Drone”
      “Drone”
      “Drone”
      “Drone”
      “Drone”
      “Drone”
      “Drone”

      eat drone, sleep drone, dream drone, talk drone….

      I think Imran Chaudhry gave u a good beating a few days ago. But some people never learn. I think ur cure is a DRONE.

      Also. YOU FORGOT TO TYPE UR COMMENTS IN UPPER CASE.

      Thank you for providing us this entertainment everyday with consistency.


      • in his dreams


      • Yeah, nujat; do some introspection about your obsession.

        May be we should request the PKKH team to make a separate post for “nujat” with a title “Drone comments only”.


  4. nujat u fuckin indian dont disguise under the name of paki…everyone knows that once army start shooting drones then it there will be no more so called democratic govt…so nujat why dont u go to ur daddy zardari and ask him to grow some balls and ask kayani to shoot down the drones..and plz stop using disguise..it only makes u more stupid than before which it did when it struck down one drone through indirect means…


    • fateh khan, why can’t you reign in your tongue? if you have a problem with someone, learn to talk without being profane. you people are bringing shame to pakistanis.


      • i think its the guys upbringing layla


    • mr so called fatehkhan sometimes you have to state the situation as it is nor matter who you offend
      it seems to me that reality is setting in the truth is being exposed the way you are replying to my comments makes me susppicious of your true intent are you making out your some one your not
      afterall their are plenty of your kind on the indian payroll as for me it doesnt make me a so called indian to have a different view point from this pak goverment and army
      nujat patriotic pakhtoon pakistani


  5. well said layla…i agree that everyone has the rigth to make a point..i accept it but this guy nujat has been saying this same thing in almost every article and its been like 300 times he said the same things..and i have never used a bad word against him..its just now i lost the temper because he puts all blame on kayani and always talks very nasty…why dont u look into his other comments then u will understand…anyways thnx for the feedback


    • guys please, i want to request all of Pakistanis here on this forum and in general, please please please do not abuse under any circumstances. you guys do so much effort and talk so well but just when you start derailing, everything is ruined. Its my request to everyone, in particular Pakistanis here. Lets not be what we are not.


  6. kyani is a wise and thinking man and after some time v hav a army chief that is brave and wise and pakistani also.
    may Allah give him more power and wisdom to protect pakistan from insiders and from outsiders .
    ameen
    pakistan zindabaad


  7. question is north waziristan part of pakistan or not
    then why is an ouside power like the americans bombing
    a soverign country like pakistan with drones simple
    nujat patriotic pakhtoon pakistani


    • US is challenging Zardari’s manhood.

      The real men like Haqani and Wazirs are fighting and bringing down those pathetic drones.


  8. this guys sounds like his master imran khan…are you a imran khan supporter nujat??


  9. for a start my master is allah and second i do support
    imran khan you got a problem with that
    nujat


    • I support Imran Khan too even though I disagree with some of positions he has taken. Out of all the politicians he is the best. The reason he is not in power because he does not use tactics like Nawaz Sharif, Zardari or Altaf monkey.


  10. General Kiyani is a smart guy and I commend him. He is playing the game in the best way possible. It is easy for us to point fingers at him, for not getting into head-on confrontation with the Americans, but being in his place, would make us realize how difficult it is to handle the whole situation.

    The situation as a whole needs to be looked at prudently in the region, not that the isolated events are to be taken into consideration or sticking the neck out prematurely with insinuations.


    • Like it!


  11. IM NOT SAYING GETTING INTO A HEAD ON COFRONTATION WITH THE AMERICANS THAT WOULD BE FOOLISH AT THE MOMENT
    HE COULD EXPLORE OTHER AVENUES LIKE PAKISTANS WITHDRAWL FROM THIS SHAM OF A WAR ON TERROR THEN THEIR IS THE SUPPLY ROUTES FOR NATO FORCES THROUGH PAKISTAN TERRITORY OR PAKISTAN TAKING ITS CASE TO THE UNITED NATION ETC ETC ETC
    ITS THE TOTAL SILENCE FROM THE PAK GOVERMENT AND ARMY THAT I CAN NOT STOMACHE
    NUJAT


    • When you reply to me, REMOVE CAPS. You dumb person, its like shouting at me. How many times I have to mention it to you.


  12. Nujat is an Indian! beware, I smell a brahmin rat!


    • i know who i am by that i mean not indian in your case you once were an indian mr aly
      nujat


      • Nujat u idiot

        shut up and solve my toilet problem first..we indians here have a serious shitting problem…I have never seen a sitting shitter in my life

        Can you please send me a picture ??

        Also if you can please donate something towards my toilet program..my shit hole is soo sour now because my knees are tired and im tired of shitting on my bed

        My address : Ask Jeeves
        10 Gali, Flat 420
        Dharvi, Mumbai
        India (South Pakistan)


  13. Kiyani should not wait any longer and must overthrow the Govt right away. All these corrupt politicians should be thrown out, we need a National Govt with capable and patriotic people at the helm of the affairs with strong backing of the Armed Forces. May God bring that day to us very very soon.
    Pak Fauj Zindabaad
    Pakistan Paindabaad


  14. Guys please stop calling Nujat an Indian.It’s not fair at all. Being patriotic & nationalist is natural. But we should also try to find the wrongs or the truth at least & work on aligning our selves to a common objective. What Nujat is saying is true. With all the respect for the Armed Forces and all. Why is it really that they are not bringing them down. What are the understandings? It should be made public? Or there should be an open debate on the media regarding the political grounds behind it!

    Secondly the Army can’t be blamed for it alone as we should understand that the Democratic system that we all craved for is very fragile for any Army Intervention to force a resolution against it. The impotent politicians sitting in the Parliament are to be blamed equally if not more for not being vocal about it!


    • its always a breath of fresh air when someone understands the point i want to get across im simply saying that pakistan is a soverign country and it hurts me to see it violated like this by the americans dropping bombs at will on its civillians killing hunderds without any kind of reply from the zardari goverment or army i myself am from this part of pakistan the tribal belt but i would be equally voicetrus if the americans were bombing parts of let say for example karachi lahore islamabad etc etc etc to me pakistan is one united country the pakistani goverment and army must act on the drones because
      otherwise the population of the tribal areas will come to a conclusion that they have no future in the state of pakistan if they allow the americans to slaughter them like this and that cannot be a good thing for pakistan future as one united country
      nujat patriotic pakistani pakhtoon


      • nujat u dumbass

        shut up and solve my toilet problem first..we indians here have a serious shitting problem…I have never seen a sitting shitter in my life

        Can you please send me a picture ??

        Also if you can please donate something towards my toilet program..my shit hole is soo sour now because my knees are tired and im tired of shitting on my bed

        My address : Ask Jeeves
        10 Gali, Flat 420
        Dharvi, Mumbai
        India (South Pakistan)


  15. Nujat is right about the drones . If they don’t stop maybe the tribals can be armed with Manpads to bring them down.


  16. Gen. Kayani You are the MAN. I like how you playing your cards. But just don’t betray us like the way your EX BOSS, Musharaf. By the way I want to know why is he in the protection of Scotland Yard. May be he served them well. Musharaf you are like Faustus who sold his sole to the Devil for few years of power and eternity in hell.


  17. Kiyana is just another in the line of sell out in the history of Islam, he plays the nation with his comments on India and its ‘cold start’ to make them think he is ‘the real thing’ while letting the US attack Pakistanis in its own land, and even having them alongside while fighting the TTP – whats even more ludicrous is the claims that the TTP are US/CIA Assets (Now pawns and tomorrow it’ll be misled….) – and that the Pakistan Army are some how not to be judged.

    Gone are the days of people who supported the Ummah from the Pakistan Army (Aiding the Mujahideen, Arabs, Bosnians etc) to fighting their own now.

    I wish people like Zaid Hamid would point out the problems in our Army as well as Government, no Islamic ally is free from judgment or criticism (based on Qur;an and Sunnah as the criterion ofcourse).

    Pakistan has a great people, and Islam part of its identity. I wish people would kill of their nationalism and realize Pakistan is nothing more than a Muslim land, its the Islamic belief that gives us our identity and cause to fight.

    PKKH – Bros/Sis, put the news about how 3 US Soldiers were killed in our country alongside our army, the more the people speak out and the more we account, the less those in power will play us.


    • WELL SAID BROTHER 3 AMERICAN SOLDIERS WERE KILLED IN OUR COUNTRY ALONGSIDE OUR SO CALLED ARMY AND THIS GOVERMENT TOLD US REPEATEDLY THAT THEIR WERE NO US TROOPS ON PAKISTANI SOIL TO THE HELL WITH KEYANI ZARDARIS MALIKS OF THIS WORLD ONLY GOOD AT MAKING GRAND SPEECHES TO FOOL THE PUBLIC WHILE OUR PEOPLE ARE DIEING AT THE HANDS OF THE AMERICANS IF ANYBODY DISAGREES WITH MY COMMENTS THEN TO HELL WITH THEM ALSO
      NUJAT


  18. Also – there is a reason Musharaff put Kiyani as his successor, lets hope Allah guides him and all our people.


  19. @nujat…dont worry about my intentions,i m a nationalist..i live like one and will die like one..and if u r patriotic pukhtoon as u write in ur every comment..plzz then explain me..considering all the angles of this drone attacks situation..its a considerable fact that after august 2008..just the moment when zardari came into power these drone attacks stepped up and increased more than ever before..i wouldnt say there were no drone attacks before..but they were very very rare..and if u think pak armed forces are sold out in this matter and according to u kayani is silent on this issue..well our previous air chief and our current one,both have said repeated times that they have the ability to shoot down the drones and they have demonstrated it through indirect means..but our defence minister and his boss zardari dont have the courage to say to americans that we will retaliate if our soveirgnity is attack..so to cut the long story short..everyone has showed intentions to go against this war on terror(war on ttp is not part of war on terror and if it was americans would not have left the posts in the afghan province adjacent to south waziristan)…army has rejected kerry lugar bill,army has declined the role of delhi in afghanistan,army has like it or not make situation favourable for afghan taliban to beat down usa and its allies..our support for war on terror was finished i think the day they started funding enemy`s agents to create havoc into pakistan..so nujat..no pakistani like the drone attacks..those who are killed they are our brothers and sisters..and its a shame that paki media talks abt them as if some bunch of foreigners are killed and they read out the drone attack report as if its on normal routine..we all know the name of dr aafia..how many of the names do we know of pakistanis being killed in drone attacks..no doubt our media and govt is soldout proamerican puppets who likes to dance and drink wine with american embassy staff while they keep killing our people from drone attacks..only one thing can change the situation into our favour and that is a pure islamic and pro nationalist revolution with people of pakistan and all the patriots in all the institutions of state namely army and agencies..thats why ZAID HAMID is going city to city to make the massive movement that will INSHA ALLAH shake the very rotten corrupt poltical and judiciary system..join the movement and lets bring the change together..united we stand divide we fall..islam zindabad pak zindabad pak fauj zindaband pak awam zindabad


  20. Recently, very nice articles are being posted on this blog but alas, I am disappointed to the max
    every article is being ruined, its message and perspective being completly ignored and spoiled by this DAMN “drone” rhetoric, if not, then by “profane” verbal lashing in Pakistan vs India talk.

    I look forward to a broad, visionary and intelligent comments and assessment. But overhead flying “drones” are simply ruining every nice thread, ESPECIALLY those about General Kiyani.


  21. Army took the right steps to re-focusing on the eastern border. We need to be ready for this COLD START strategy. Gone are the days of 1967.

    Enemy can dream and dream about their 4th generation warfare. We have defeated them before and will do it again.


    • Errr… .get your warped history straight Paki. Nothing happened in 1967….


      • Arab-Israel war occurred in 1967 in which Israel deployed the cold start strategy but then if you say so, nothing happened.


  22. I love you Pakis. When you have dictatorship, you want a democracy. When you have a democracy, you crave for Army rule. You blame India, Israel, CIA, RAW, MOSSAD – pretty much everyone and everything that can be blamed, but you have no clue how to fix your own country…… You guys are classic !!!


    • @abused or self-abused

      The author was referring to Arab-Israeli war.Preference for dictatorship or democracy is our internal affair.
      Why don’t you go build some toilets for your fellow Indians.


      • I am building toilets. Why don’t you build a nation?


  23. India to be net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond

    The US says that India will be a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond with the growth of its military capabilities.
    As economic power, cultural reach and political influence of India increase, India is assuming a more influential role in global affairs, the 128-page QDR report said.


    • alright jeeves, best of luck with the policing…hope you’ll not fail dady sam.


  24. I would suggest that one should just take 10 minutes and look at what our own people are doing.

    Abusing each other like animals with the height of unethical attitude at its best.

    Do you think you can solve or are even closer to be eligible to comment or suggest???

    According to Shariah, a person who has once lied, abused, stolen, oppressed anyone in even the minimal way possible… He cant even be taken as an authentic witness in any petty crime case.

    Naming a few… Ask Jeeves & Imran Choudrhy are not worthy of being allowed on blogging. But like its said, one cannot everytime get what he wants.. and i might not be heard here and they might still carry on with this insane, rude and stupid spree that they find fun in.

    As for the article itself… true that Gen. Kyani is a man made of stone.. knows when to take a stand for the national interest… true that india is and will always be an imminent threat… true that Gen. Kyani is powerful enough to take control… True that he is a genuine soldier coming from the poorest backgrounds possible… true that.

    BUT… the question is..
    1. Why is it that he allows US interference in Pakistan…?
    2. Doesn’t he see the drone attacks? Doesn’t he think these are wrong?
    3. Does he underestimate the power of his own army to tackle the problem that he lets the drone do the job for him?
    4. Can’t he see Pakistan being cornered in the global war on terror?
    5. Does he not think that its his responsibility to safeguard Pakistan first and not the US Marines stationed in Afghanistan?

    Nujat is right when he says that even though Gen. kyani talks bravely when it comes to India… Why is it that Gen. Kyani cannot at least denounce the Drone Attacks or any other airspace or land border violation by the US Marines???



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